June 2013 Survey Results:
The overall MCI-EFI is 57.3, an increase from the May index of 56.7.
- When asked to assess their business conditions over the next four months, 19.4% of executives responding said they believe business conditions will improve over the next four months, up from 9.7% in May. 71% of respondents believe business conditions will remain the same over the next four months, down from 87.1% in May. 9.7% believe business conditions will worsen, up from 3.2% the previous month.
- 19.4% of survey respondents believe demand for leases and loans to fund capital expenditures (capex) will increase over the next four months, up from 12.9% in May. 71% believe demand will "remain the same" during the same four-month time period, down from 80.6% the previous month. 9.7% believe demand will decline, up from 6.5% in May.
- 19.4% of executives expect more access to capital to fund equipment acquisitions over the next four months, down from 25.8% in May. 80.6% of survey respondents indicate they expect the "same" access to capital to fund business, an increase from 74.2% the previous month. No one expects "less" access to capital, unchanged from May.
- When asked, 29% of the executives reported they expect to hire more employees over the next four months, an increase from 19.4% in May. 67.7% expect no change in headcount over the next four months, down from 71% last month. 3.2% expect fewer employees, down from 9.7% of respondents who expected fewer employees in May.
- 90.3% of the leadership evaluates the current U.S. economy as "fair," unchanged from last month. 9.7% rate it as "poor," also unchanged from May.
- 22.6% of survey respondents believe that U.S. economic conditions will get "better" over the next six months, a decrease from 32.3% in May. 71% of survey respondents indicate they believe the U.S. economy will "stay the same" over the next six months, an increase from 64.5% in May. 6.5% believe economic conditions in the U.S. will worsen over the next six months, an increase from 3.2% who believed so last month.
- In June, 25.8% of respondents indicate they believe their company will increase spending on business development activities during the next six months, unchanged from May. 74.2% believe there will be "no change" in business development spending, and no one believes there will be a decrease in spending, both also unchanged from May.
June 2013 Survey Comments from Industry Executive Leadership:
Depending on the market segment they represent, executives have differing, but improving points of view on the current and future outlook for the industry.
Bank, Middle Ticket
"The industry outlook is trending in a positive direction. However, the recent data reflects a single month and isn't yet indicative of a larger trend. While we are currently in a positive environment, U.S. Bank is well positioned to capitalize on the current market conditions." Anthony Cracchiolo, President and CEO, Vendor Services, U.S. Bank Equipment Finance
"Continued market uncertainty and volatility in the U.S. and abroad, mixed economic and industry results, and consideration by the Fed to reduce its stimulus program and increase interest rates are challenging customers on the timing of future capex replacement and/or expansion. Numerous industry segments experiencing modest to robust sales growth and replenished cash reserves during the past 18 months are moving forward with capex plans, contributing to strong performance for the equipment finance industry during the remainder of 2013 and into 2014." Russell Nelson, President, CoBank Farm Credit Leasing
Survey Respondent Demographics:
- Bank: 54.8%
- Captive: 9.7%
- Financial Services: 9.7%
- Independent: 25.8%
- Other: 0.0%
Market Segments Based on Transaction Size of New Business Volume
- Large-Ticket (New Business Volume Avg. Transaction Size Over $5 Million): 12.9%
- Middle-Ticket (New Business Volume Avg. Transaction Size of $250,000 - $5 Million): 58.1%
- Small-Ticket (New Business Volume Avg. Transaction Size of $25,000 - $249,999): 25.8%
- Micro-Ticket (New Business Volume Avg. Transaction Less Than $25,000): 3.2%
Organization Size (Based on Annual New Business Volume for Fiscal Year 2010):
- Under $50 Million: 6.5%
- $50 Million - $250 Million: 16.1%
- $250 Million - $1 Billion: 41.9%
- Over $1 Billion: 35.5%