Agricultural Machinery
Investment in Agricultural Machinery fell 9.7% (annualized) in Q3 2024 and is 5.6% below its year-ago level. The Agriculture Machinery Momentum Index slipped from 101.7 to 100.9 in January. In November, poultry production decreased 17% M/M, and rice and other food and grains exports fell 19% Y/Y. Overall, the Index’s current position and recent movement points to continued weakening in annual growth in agriculture machinery investment over the next six months.
Construction Machinery
Investment in Construction Machinery decreased 29% (annualized) in Q3 2024 and is now 8.7% below its year-ago level. The Construction Machinery Momentum Index jumped from 98.1 in December to 107.5 in January. In November, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index increased 18% M/M, while new homes under construction fell 1.8% M/M. The Index’s sharp upward movement is a positive sign for investment growth in construction machinery over the next six months.
Materials Handling Equipment
Investment in Materials Handling Equipment rose 6.4% (annualized) in Q3 2024 and is 2.6% above year-ago levels. The Materials Handling Equipment Momentum Index improved from 89.8 in December to 91.8 in January. In December, total nonfarm manufacturing payrolls fell 0.1% M/M, while durable goods machinery sales increased 2.2% M/M in November. Overall, the Index’s recent movement suggests that annual investment growth in materials handling equipment is likely to remain positive over the next six months.
Other Industrial Equipment
Investment in All Other Industrial Equipment increased 5.2% (annualized) in Q3 2024 and is up 2.5% on a year-over-year basis. The Other Industrial Equipment Momentum Index fell from 90.2 to 88.5 in January. In December, the advanced foreign economies index rose 2.5% M/M while industrial production prices fell 0.1%. Overall, the index’s recent movement suggests that annual investment growth in industrial equipment investment will remain muted over the next two quarters
Medical Equipment
Investment in Medical Equipment increased 6.1% (annualized) in Q3 2024 and is up 1.7% on a Y/Y basis. The Medical Equipment Momentum Index edged up from 99.2 in December to 100.0 in January. While the market cap for Medtronic decreased 7.7% Y/Y in December, the CPI for dental services climbed 0.5% M/M and nearly 4% Y/Y in November. Overall, the Index’s latest level and its past trajectory suggests that annual growth in medical equipment investment should remain positive and may improve over the next two quarters.
Mining & Oilfield Machinery
Investment in Mining & Oilfield Machinery fell at a 18% annualized rate in Q3 2024 and is 1.4% below year-ago levels. The Mining & Oilfield Machinery Momentum Index rose from 95.8 in December to 97.5 in January. In December, the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) rose 1.9% M/M, and new orders of mining and oilfield machinery goods grew 15% Y/Y in November. Overall, recent movements in the Index suggest that annual investment growth in mining and oilfield machinery should improve over the next six months
Aircraft
Investment in Aircraft surged 419% (annualized) in Q3 2024 and is up 54% on an annual basis. The Aircraft Momentum Index ticked up from 101.7 in December to 102.5 in January. In November, computer and electronic product exports increased 17% Y/Y, and civilian aircraft imports surged 97% M/M. The Index’s latest shifts continues to indicate strong annual growth in aircraft investment over the next two quarters.
Ships & Boats
Investment in Ships & Boats rose 20% (annualized) in Q3 2024 but is 10% below its year-ago levels. The Ships & Boats Momentum Index ticked up from 98.4 in December to 99.2 in January. In November, inventories of ships and boats increased 1.9% M/M, though traffic at the Port of Long Beach fell 10% M/M. Overall, the Index suggests that annual investment growth in ships & boats is likely to remain negative over the next two quarters.
Railroad Equipment
Investment in Railroad Equipment fell 25% (annualized) in Q3 2024 and is up 23% year-over-year. The Railroad Equipment Momentum Index rose from 90.6 to 93.7 in January. While rail carloads of grain increased 23% M/M in December, capacity utilization for manufacturing and transportation equipment fell on an annual basis in November. Overall, the Index’s current position and recent movement suggests that annual investment growth in railroad equipment will remain positive over the next six months.
Trucks
Investment in Trucks decreased 23% (annualized) in Q3 2024 and is down 5.5% from a year prior. The Trucks Momentum Index increased sharply from 86.4 to 92.8 in January. Raw steel production jumped 27% M/M in December, and industrial production of light trucks increased 7.1% M/M in November. Overall, annual investment growth in trucks is likely to remain negative over the next two quarters, but recent movement in the index is encouraging.
Computers
Investment in Computers rose 39% (annualized) in Q3 2024 and is up 28% on a year-over-year basis. The Computers Momentum Index increased from 106.8 in December to 108.5 in January. In November, retail and food services sales increased 0.7% M/M, and shipments of computer equipment rose 6.7% Y/Y. The Index suggests that annual investment growth in computers will continue to increase over the next two quarters.
Software
Investment in Software increased 2.5% (annualized) in Q3 2024 and is 6.1% above year-ago levels. The Software Momentum Index decreased from 97.7 to 96.1 in January. In November, average weekly earnings for computer and software merchant wholesalers fell 1.1% M/M, and overall industrial production ticked down 0.2% M/M. Overall, the Index continues to indicate positive annual growth in software investment over the next six months, but recent negative movement is worth keeping an eye on.
