Agricultural Machinery
Investment in Agricultural Machinery decreased 7.9% (annualized) in Q3 2024 and is 5.1% below its year-ago level. The Agriculture Machinery Momentum Index held steady at 108.0 in November. In September, unmanufactured tobacco exports fell 65% Y/Y, while agricultural machinery prices decreased 12% Y/Y. Overall, the Index continues to suggest that annual growth in agriculture machinery investment will weaken over the next two quarters.
Construction Machinery
Investment in Construction Machinery fell 27% (annualized) in Q3 2024 and is now 8.1% below its year-ago level. The Construction Machinery Momentum Index increased from 91.0 to 93.7 in November. Privately owned housing units ticked up 1.9% M/M in September, but the value of durable goods and construction machinery decreased 5.6% Y/Y in August. The Index’s current position and recent movement suggests annual investment growth in construction machinery will remain muted over the next two quarters.
Materials Handling Equipment
Investment in Materials Handling Equipment increased 8.5% (annualized) in Q3 2024 and is 3.1% above year-ago levels. The Materials Handling Equipment Momentum Index rose from 89.1 in October to 90.5 in November. While payrolls edged down 0.4% M/M in October, inventories of manufactured durable goods rose 1.4% M/M in August. The Index’s latest shifts suggest that annual investment growth in materials handling equipment could improve modestly over the next six months.
Other Industrial Equipment
Investment in All Other Industrial Equipment rose 6.7% (annualized) in Q3 2024 and is up 2.9% on a year-over-year basis. The Other Industrial Equipment Momentum Index slipped from 89.6 to 88.8 in November. In September, industrial production prices fell 0.3% M/M, and manufacturers’ inventories of durable goods decreased 0.8% Y/Y in August. Overall, the Index’s position indicates that annual investment growth in other industrial equipment will remain weak over the next six months.
Medical Equipment
Investment in Medical Equipment increased 8.6% (annualized) in Q3 2024 and is up 2.3% on a Y/Y basis. The Medical Equipment Momentum Index held steady at 97.0 in November. In October, the Medtronic Market Cap rose 21.9% Y/Y, and the CPI for medical care ticked up 0.4% in September. Overall, the Index’s latest levels and its recent trajectory suggest that annual growth of medical equipment investment will remain modestly positive over the next six months.
Mining & Oilfield Machinery
Investment in Mining & Oilfield Machinery fell at a 20% annualized rate in Q3 2024 and is 1.9% below year-ago levels. The Mining & Oilfield Machinery Momentum Index jumped from 95.8 to 102.5 in November. In August, new orders of mining and oilfield machinery goods fell 12.7% on a year-over-year basis, while crude oil production increased 1.5% M/M. Overall, the Index’s current position and recent movement suggest that annual investment growth in mining and oilfield machinery should turn positive over the next six months.
Aircraft
Investment in Aircraft surged 414% (annualized) in Q3 2024 and is up 54% on an annual basis. The Aircraft Momentum Index held steady at 104.8 in November. Computer and electronic product exports increased 22.1% Y/Y in August, though aerospace products and parts production fell 8.3% M/M in September. The Index suggests strong annual growth in aircraft investment over the next two quarters. However, the impact of the Boeing strike on traditional leading indicators may be distorting the reading by pulling investment forward in Q2 and Q3.
Ships & Boats
Investment in Ships & Boats increased 14% (annualized) in Q3 2024 but is 11% below its year-ago levels. The Ships & Boats Momentum Index decreased from 107.3 to 103.2 in November. In September, industrial production of ships and boats decreased 2.3%, while traffic at the Port of Long Beach fell 9.2% M/M. Overall, despite this month’s decline, the Index’s recent movement and current position suggest that annual growth in ships & boats investment has bottomed out and should improve over the next six months.
Railroad Equipment
Investment in Railroad Equipment increased 59% (annualized) in Q3 2024 and is up 48% year-over-year. The Railroad Equipment Momentum Index rose from 89.8 to 93.7 in November. In September, carloads of farm and food products excluding grain increased 34.3% M/M, while crude oil and petroleum exports decreased 7.9% Y/Y. Overall, the Index suggests that annual investment growth in railroad equipment should remain strong over the next six months
Trucks
Investment in Trucks fell 22% (annualized) in Q3 2024 and is down 5.2% from a year prior. The Trucks Momentum Index decreased from 95.2 in October to 92.0 in November. In September, raw steel production increased 20.6% M/M, while capacity utilization of furniture and related products fell 1.2% M/M. The Index’s current position and recent movement indicates that annual growth in trucks investment will continue to weaken over the next two quarters.
Computers
Investment in Computers increased 33% (annualized) in Q3 2024 and is up 26.3% on a year-over-year basis. The Computers Momentum Index remained at 105.1 from October to November. The Consumer Confidence Index rose 7.6% Y/Y in October, and computer and electronic products new orders improved 1.4% Y/Y in September. Overall, the Index’s current position suggests that annual investment growth in computers will remain strong over the next six months.
Software
Investment in Software ticked up 1.9% (annualized) in Q3 2024 and is 6.0% above year-ago levels. The Software Momentum Index jumped from 93.0 to 98.4 in November. In October, the unemployment rate remained unchanged M/M, while the ISM new orders index rose 12.1% M/M in September. Overall, the Index suggests that annual investment growth in software will remain positive and may improve over the next two quarters.
