Agricultural Machinery
Investment in Agricultural Machinery decreased 7.1% (annualized) in Q3 2024 and is 4.9% below its year-ago level. The Agriculture Machinery Momentum Index increased from 102.6 to 104.3 in December. In October, rice and other food and grains exports increased 85% Y/Y, and poultry production increased 13% M/M. The Index’s current position and recent movement suggests annual growth in agriculture machinery investment is likely to weaken further over the next six months.
Construction Machinery
Investment in Construction Machinery fell 29% (annualized) in Q3 2024 and is now 8.8% below its year-ago level. The Construction Machinery Momentum Index edged up from 97.2 in November to 98.1 in December. In October, privately owned housing units eased 1.9%, while new homes under construction decreased 3.1% M/M. Overall, the Index points to continued weakness in annual investment growth in construction machinery over the next two quarters.
Materials Handling Equipment
Investment in Materials Handling Equipment increased 6.7% (annualized) in Q3 2024 and is 2.7% above year-ago levels. The Materials Handling Equipment Momentum Index held steady at 89.1 in December. While inventories of manufactured durable goods edged up 0.6% M/M in October, the ISM Supplier Deliveries Index fell 6.3% M/M in November. The Index’s latest movements suggest that annual investment growth in materials handling equipment will remain positive and could strengthen over the next six months.
Other Industrial Equipment
Investment in All Other Industrial Equipment rose 4.7% (annualized) in Q3 2024 and is up 2.4% on a year-over-year basis. The Other Industrial Equipment Momentum Index slipped from 91.0 to 90.2 in December. Industrial production prices decreased 0.3% M/M in October, while the Nominal Advanced Foreign Economies Index rose 1.5% M/M in November. Overall, the Index continues to suggest that annual investment growth in other industrial equipment will remain weak over the next two quarters
Medical Equipment
Investment in Medical Equipment rose 6.0% (annualized) in Q3 2024 and is up 1.7% on a Y/Y basis. The Medical Equipment Momentum Index ticked up from 96.2 in November to 97.0 in December. In October, the CPI for medical care increased 1.3% M/M, and the CPI for dental services ticked up 0.5% M/M. Overall, the Index’s current position and recent movement suggests that annual growth of medical equipment investment should remain positive over the next six months.
Mining & Oilfield Machinery
Investment in Mining & Oilfield Machinery decreased at a 19% annualized rate in Q3 2024 and is 1.8% below year-ago levels. The Mining & Oilfield Machinery Momentum Index remained at 98.3 from November to December. New orders of mining and oilfield machinery goods increased 6.5% Y/Y in October, while crude oil production decreased 4.4% M/M in September. Overall, the Index suggests that annual investment growth in mining and oilfield machinery should improve over the next six months.
Aircraft
Investment in Aircraft surged 421% (annualized) in Q3 2024 and is up 54% on an annual basis. The Aircraft Momentum Index fell sharply from 106.5 in November to 101.4 in December. The ISM New Orders Index fell 6.4% M/M in November, and aerospace products and parts production fell 5.8% M/M in October. The Index’s recent movement suggests that annual growth in aircraft investment may have peaked and is likely to decline over the next two quarters.
Ships & Boats
Investment in Ships & Boats increased 20% (annualized) in Q3 2024 but is 10% below its year-ago levels. The Ships & Boats Momentum Index edged down from 99.2 in November to 97.6 in December. Industrial production of ships and boats increased 2.5% Y/Y in October, while the ISM Purchase Managers’ Index fell 7.0% M/M in November. Overall, the Index suggests that annual growth in ships & boats investment will remain in contractionary territory over the next six months.
Railroad Equipment
Investment in Railroad Equipment decreased 34% (annualized) in Q3 2024 and is up 19% year-over-year. The Railroad Equipment Momentum Index rose from 89.8 to 91.3 in December. While prices of petroleum and coal products increased 0.9% M/M in October, rail carloads of farm and food products excluding grain fell 2.8% M/M in November. The Index’s latest shifts suggest that annual investment growth in railroad equipment may weaken but should remain positive over the next six months.
Trucks
Trucks:
Investment in Trucks fell 23% (annualized) in Q3 2024 and is down 5.4% from a year prior. The Trucks Momentum Index declined from 89.6 to 88.8 in December. Light truck sales increased 4.6% M/M in November, while capacity utilization of furniture and related products slipped 0.8% M/M in October. Overall, the Index suggests that annual investment growth in trucks will be weak or negative over the next six months.
Computers
Investment in Computers jumped 39% (annualized) in Q3 2024 and is up 28% on a year-over-year basis. The Computers Momentum Index held steady at 106.8 in December. The Consumer Confidence Index edged up 0.4% M/M in November, and shipments of computer equipment rose 4.6% Y/Y in October. Overall, the Index’s latest level and recent movement point to strong annual investment growth in computers over the next two quarters.
Software
Investment in Software edged up 2.3% (annualized) in Q3 2024 and is 6.1% above year-ago levels. The Software Momentum Index fell sharply from 103.1 to 96.9 in December. The ISM Supplier Deliveries Index decreased 12.2% on a year-over-year basis in November, and overall industrial production fell 0.3% M/M in October. The Index’s current position suggests that annual investment growth in software should remain positive on a year-over-year basis over the next six months, but this month’s sizeable decline is worth monitoring.
