Monthly Confidence Index – Equipment Finance Industry (MCI-EFI) – March 2023

March 2023 Survey Results

The overall MCI-EFI is 50.3, a decrease from the February index of 51.8.

• When asked to assess their business conditions over the next four months, 10.7% of the executives responding said they believe business conditions will improve over the next four months, a decrease from 16.1% in February. 57.1% believe business conditions will remain the same over the next four months, down from 61.3% the previous month. 32.1% believe business conditions will worsen, an increase from 22.6 % in February.
• 10.7% of the survey respondents believe demand for leases and loans to fund capital expenditures (capex) will increase over the next four months, an increase from 9.7% in February. 67.9% believe demand will “remain the same” during the same four-month time period, a decrease from 71% the previous month. 21.4% believe demand will decline, up from 19.4% in February.
• 17.9% of the respondents expect more access to capital to fund equipment acquisitions over the next four months, up from 12.9% in February. 71.4% of executives indicate they expect the “same” access to capital to fund business, a decrease from 74.2% last month. 10.7% expect “less” access to capital, down from 12.9% the previous month.
• When asked, 35.7% of the executives report they expect to hire more employees over the next four months, a decrease from 38.7% in February. 57.1% expect no change in headcount over the next four months, an increase from 54.8% last month. 7.1% expect to hire fewer employees, up from 6.5% in February.
• 3.7% of the leadership evaluate the current U.S. economy as “excellent,” up from none the previous month. 88.9% of the leadership evaluate the current U.S. economy as “fair,” up from 87.1% in February. 7.4% evaluate it as “poor,” a decrease from 12.9% last month.
• 3.6% of the survey respondents believe that U.S. economic conditions will get “better” over the next six months, a slight increase from 3.2% in February. 53.6% indicate they believe the U.S. economy will “stay the same” over the next six months, a decrease from 54.8% last month. 42.9% believe economic conditions in the U.S. will worsen over the next six months, an increase from 41.9% the previous month.
• In March 39.3% of respondents indicate they believe their company will increase spending on business development activities during the next six months, down from 51.6% the previous month. 53.6% believe there will be “no change” in business development spending, up from 41.9% in February. 7.1% believe there will be a decrease in spending, up from 6.5% last month.

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March 2023 Survey Comments from Industry Executive Leadership

Bank, Small Ticket

“Wintrust is well positioned to grow during this time of uncertainty given our strong balance sheet and commitment to the equipment finance space and our customers.” David Normandin, President and Chief Executive Officer, Wintrust Specialty Finance

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Survey Demographics

Market Segment

• Bank 44.4%
• Captive 11.1%
• Independent 44.4%

Market Segments Based on Transaction Size of New Business Volume

• Large-Ticket (New Business Volume Avg. Transaction Size Over $5 Million) 11.1%
• Middle-Ticket (New Business Volume Avg. Transaction Size of $250,000 – $5 Million) 40.7%
• Small-Ticket (New Business Volume Avg. Transaction Size of $25,000 – $249,999) 48.1%
• Micro-Ticket (New Business Volume Avg. Transaction Less Than $25,000) 0%

Organization Size

• Under $50 Million 17.8%
• $50 Million – $250 Million 14.3%.
• $250 Million – $1 Billion 32.1%
• Over $1 Billion 35.7%

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